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Climate Change Forecast: April's Wild Weather – What’s Coming in the Near Future
By the end of this century, we can expect more heatwaves and tropical nights, longer growing seasons for plants, and fewer cold days. Precipitation will also increase, especially in winter, with more rain and snow, and the Baltic Sea level will rise by 22 to 35 cm.
These predictions were shared during a recent event at the Ministry of Environment, titled “Increasing Floods. Storms. Municipal Adaptation to Climate Change.”
Judita Liukaitytė-Kukienė, a senior climate policy advisor at the Ministry of Environment, pointed out that the past decade may have been the warmest in 125,000 years. Over the past year, global temperatures have risen by more than 1.5°C. The wild weather in Lithuania this April—record heat followed by snow—is an example of how global climate change is affecting our country. Municipalities had to deal with this unpredictable weather by deciding whether to use sand spreaders or turn on heating.
“We need to focus not just on reducing climate change, but also on adapting to it,” said Simonas Gentvilas, the Minister of Environment. “For example, last year, floods along the coast caused about 250 million euros in damage. We’ve already broken heat records this year, showing that a crisis is unavoidable. The question is whether we’re ready to handle it, protect people’s health, and safeguard our cities, roads, energy, and agriculture. Local governments must take the lead in helping citizens prepare.”
Liukaitytė-Kukienė added that in the next decade, 80% of global disasters will be linked to climate change. Lithuania’s climate is changing as part of larger global trends, and we are already feeling its effects.
From 1961 to 2022, Lithuania's average temperature increased by 2.3°C. It is expected to rise by another 1 to 3°C in the coming years. The number of hot days (over 30°C) has tripled, while the number of cold days (below -20°C) has halved.
Annual rainfall has increased by 11%, and sunshine has increased by 7%, or 127 hours, during this time.
These forecasts come from the “ClimAdapt-LT” project, funded by the Norwegian Financial Mechanism’s "Environment, Energy, Climate Change" programme.
Liukaitytė-Kukienė emphasized the need for planning to minimize losses for governments and citizens. Winter is expected to be warmer, but this also brings challenges, like road damage from alternating thawing and freezing.
As the cold season warms, people will become more sensitive to cold, and the health risks will grow. Even though there will be fewer cold days, we will still need to change tires and salt the roads. Heating systems must be flexible to adjust to temperature swings, like those we experienced this April, with temperatures ranging from 29°C to -9°C in just a week.
In summer, temperatures will rise significantly, with more heatwaves. This will be especially problematic in southern Lithuania, where both day and night temperatures will be high, requiring air conditioning in buildings for comfort.
To help with the heat, municipalities have started installing fountains and water dispensers in cities, but they need to expand this network. Schools should also install ventilation systems to ensure education continues smoothly during extreme temperatures.
Nature is sending us more warning signs: ticks are spreading diseases, forests are being attacked by pests, and allergies are on the rise. Heavy rainfall, especially when it all falls in one day, is damaging parks and forests. Dry periods are being replaced by storms, increasing the risk of wildfires. Climate change is also linked to rising heart disease and stress due to the heat.
Local governments need to create detailed plans to respond to these changes. Lithuania’s municipalities vary greatly, so tailored plans are crucial. A study from the “ClimAdapt-LT” project identified the most vulnerable cities: Kaunas, Klaipėda, Panevėžys, Šiauliai, and Vilnius.
Klaipėda has already developed a climate adaptation plan, and similar plans have been created for other cities like Panevėžys, Vilnius, and Utena, as well as several rural municipalities.
To help municipalities plan for the future, the Ministry of Environment has created an interactive map and scoreboard where they can see how the climate will change in each Lithuanian municipality by 2100.
This tool lets users choose different climate scenarios and see how temperatures, rainfall, and other factors will affect each region. You can explore it online at www.klimatokaita.lt/en/.
More about the Environment, Energy and Climate Change Programme
The Norwegian Financial Mechanism's Environment, Energy and Climate Change Programme 2014-2021 in Lithuania aims to improve the environmental condition of ecosystems and reduce the negative impacts of pollution and other human activities. Various measures under the programme strengthen the capacity of society and regions to adapt to climate change, focuses on renewable energy and its efficiency, disaster prevention, the safe closure of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, and hazardous waste management. In total, more than €14.12 million has been allocated to the Environment, Energy and Climate Change programme for the period 2014-2021. The implementation of the programme is supervised by the Central Project Management Agency (CPVA).
The Norwegian Financial Mechanism's Environment, Energy and Climate Change Programme 2014-2021 in Lithuania aims to improve the environmental condition of ecosystems and reduce the negative impacts of pollution and other human activities. Various measures under the programme strengthen the capacity of society and regions to adapt to climate change, focuses on renewable energy and its efficiency, disaster prevention, the safe closure of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, and hazardous waste management. In total, more than €14.12 million has been allocated to the Environment, Energy and Climate Change programme for the period 2014-2021. The implementation of the programme is supervised by the Central Project Management Agency (CPVA).